The year 2024 marked a significant revival in Poland’s commercial real estate market. The total transaction volume exceeded €5 billion, reflecting a 239% year-on-year increase. The office, retail, and logistics sectors accounted for the majority of this activity.
Key Transactions in the Real Estate Sector
Several notable transactions shaped the market landscape in 2024 on the Polish market:
Sale of Warsaw UNIT
Belgian developer Ghelamco sold the Warsaw UNIT office building to Swedish company Eastnine for €280 million. This was the largest office sector transaction in terms of volume in 2024.
Acquisition of Shopping Centres by NEPI Rockcastle
NEPI Rockcastle acquired two major shopping centres — Silesia City Center in Katowice and Magnolia Park in Wrocław — for a total of €778 million.
Greykite’s Acquisition of the Diamond Business Parks Portfolio
European investment fund Greykite acquired the Diamond Business Parks portfolio from White Star, comprising 142,000 square metres of industrial and logistics space — for a total of €132 million.
Stena Real Estate’s Acquisition of Studio B Office Building
Stena Real Estate purchased the 17,600-square-metre Studio B office building in Warsaw from Skanska for over €86.3 million.
Sona Asset Management’s Stake in CPI Office Portfolio
Sona Asset Management acquired a 49% stake in CPI Group’s Vulcanion office portfolio, representing 315,000 square metres of office space — for a total of €250 million.
Key Trends in the Real Estate Market
The second half of 2024 revealed clear trends impacting Poland’s real estate market, with investors adapting their strategies to evolving market conditions and global trends. The key developments included:
Dominance of the Office Sector
The office sector led investment activity, accounting for 32.3% of total volume. The total transaction value in this segment reached €1.63 billion, marking a 382% year-on-year increase.
Growth in the Retail Sector
The retail sector attracted €1.59 billion in investment, representing 31.6% of total volume and marking a 372% year-on-year increase. This was the highest level recorded since 2019, driven predominantly by retail parks.
Stable Growth in the Logistics Sector
Investment in the logistics sector reached €1.26 billion, reflecting a 127% year-on-year increase. This segment remained highly attractive to investors, particularly from North America.
Rising Importance of the Living Sector (PRS, PBSA, etc.)
The Living sector, encompassing institutional rental housing, hotels, and private student accommodation, gained momentum, attracting €559 million in investment, equivalent to 11.1% of total volume.
Green Buildings and ESG Considerations
Investor interest was increasingly directed towards assets adhering to high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards, enhancing the value of properties meeting various sustainability certification requirements.
Outlook for 2025
Market forecasts for 2025 remain optimistic. Continued investment growth is expected in the office and logistics sectors, driven by stable economic development and increasing demand for modern spaces. The Living sector is also poised for further expansion, particularly in response to the growing demand for institutional rental housing.
The key factors to monitor include central bank policies on interest rates and potential fiscal policy changes, which may impact the availability of financing for new investments. Additionally, geopolitical developments, particularly the evolving situation in Ukraine and its implications for investor sentiment, remain crucial considerations.
Michał Zalewski, Partner at Koda Advisory, comments:
Since Q4 of last year, we have observed strong signals of renewed interest from international funds in the Polish market. These investors are willing to engage in transactions even at lower potential returns compared to previous years, indicating growing stability and confidence in the market.
According to market experts, current investor interest is concentrated in four primary areas:
1. Logistics Real Estate
Demand remains strong due to the post-pandemic trend of shortening supply chains.
2. Grade A Office Buildings
Particularly those developed post-2020 or currently under construction, not only in Warsaw but also in key regional cities such as Kraków, Szczecin and Wrocław.
3. Grade C Properties in Peripheral Locations
Often earmarked for refurbishment (frequently for PRS conversion) or demolition and redevelopment. An example is the transformation of Warsaw’s “Mordor” office district, where companies have been relocating towards the Rondo ONZ and Rondo Daszyńskiego areas, shifting the city’s business centre.
4. Shopping Centres and Retail Parks
Transactions in this sector remain more selective, reflecting the investment strategies of individual companies rather than broader market trends.
Summary
In summary, 2024 was a pivotal year for Poland’s commercial real estate market, and the outlook for 2025 suggests a continuation of positive trends and sustained sector growth. A further decline in interest rates, along with a stabilisation of the conflict in Ukraine, could have a positive impact on market liquidity and bolster investor interest in specific segments of the real estate market.
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